Welcome to GambleM8

Select the menu icon to access a range of helpful tools.

Click the + button in headings to access help for each section.

Note that odds are assumed to be in decimal for most pages. Select if you want American style odds (e.g. -200, +150) to replace decimal style odds (e.g. 1.5, 2.5) in most screens: Yes I want american style odds

Tips

Tips from GambleM8. Use at your own risk. Note that the amount is based on a half kelly amount and

Expected Value Calculator

Expected value is the profit or loss of a bet if it were on a long-run average.
Put in odds, stake and real percent chance of winning and get Expected Value (EV)

Bet Sizing

Put in the bank value, odds of new bet and real chances of winning the bet

Bank Bank is the value of your betting bank... how much you can afford to lose or is in your gambling account. Would you bet all of your bank on a single bet? The simple answer is no - this page helps you make the decision of how much of your bank to wager on a single bet.


This calculates how much to bet based on the Kelly Criterion. Bet amounts are based on the formula
(((1-Odds) x percentChanceOfWin) - percentChanceOfLose) / (1-Odds)

as defined by J. L. Kelly, Jr. Just google this, no time to explain ;)
The percent chance of win loss is initially calculated on fair odds and assumes a two way race. This is the minimum probability needed to bet.

Note: Gamble at your own risk. Bet less or not at all if you are unsure.

Simulations

Put in the bank value, odds of new bet and chances of winning the bet.

Then choose how many simulations you want to run for that same bet to see how bank roll would be affected.

Try different ammounts. Even good bets (+EV) will make you go broke if you bet too much.

Turn off "Random Simulation" to make the win : loss ratio evenly distibuted. Wins and losses will be based purely on win % input.
i.e. this will win one simulation at the exact win %, in a steady manner without any "streaks" or luck invovled. It will also produce the same result on successive runs.

Odds Converter

Put in odds or percent chance of winning and press the corresponding button

Bonus Bet Salvaging

This screen assists in guaranteeing the most value back from your bonus bets... i.e. salvaging the bonus bet as much as possible instead of risking it.

Cash Out Calculator

The cash out calculator predicts the cash out value at new odds. A 'fair' cash would pay back the same if odds didn't change or pay out in full if the odds went down to 1.0. But Mate, the bookies take a cut.

2-way Hedging Strategies

Hedge bets are placed after an original bet to create a situation where there is a guaranteed profit. This page can also be used to calculate strategies for Arbitrage betting.

Bookie Margin

Find out what margin your bookie has for fun or for cashout scenarios or to see if you have an arbitrage opportunity (win/win).
Note Arbitrage will likely only be available for special odds or by using multipole platorms. If margin is negative, you have an arbitrage opportunity (win/win) and can put the odds into the hedging calculator to find best strategy options.

BoX - Over Y games

Calculate the probability of a best of X series reaching up to Y games.

BoX - simulations

Simulate Best of X series based on per-game probablitily and starting scores. You can also use this page to verify totals and win % from the previous two pages (which are calculated mathematically rather than simulated)

Match vs Series Probability Calculator

A slight edge per game turns into a significant edge in a Best of X format. Use this calculator to check both.

Calculate Series Probability from Individual Game Chance

Chance for Individual Game Win(%) Best of Y (Total Games)

Estimate Individual Game Chance from Series Probability

Chance for Series Win (%) Best of Y (Total Games)

Bayes Calculator

This calculator uses Bayes Theorem to make probability calculation of "What is the probability of A given that B is true"

Suppose that 5% of people of your age and heredity have cancer. Suppose that a blood test has been developed that correctly gives a positive test result in 80% of people with cancer, and gives a false positive in 20% of the cases of people without cancer. Suppose you take the test, and it is positive. What is the probability that you actually have cancer, given the positive test result?
Most people would say 80%... it is not.

The answer is below in the default values of the calculator.

Bayes reasoning can be used in a wide variety of problems to determine the real probability based on prior and updated information.

Poker Hands

Either put in a percent to see the top hands of that percentage, or select a few hands to see the relative percentage with a show down.

Dutching Calculator

Dutching is used to divide a stake over a number of selections in an event, so that the same amount is won regardless of which selection wins.

Draw Scenarios

Fill in your bet amount and odds, the strategy you want and click go.

Normal Distribution Visualiser

Normal Distribution - is a very common probability distribution and applies to many of the over / under type statistics / markets in sports. Put in average and standard deviation and get the likelyhood and fair odds for any outcome.